Yesterday, I sold my holdings in JD Sports and
Cupid, and used the funds to buy a position in Pulsion Medical.
Explaining these one by one:
JD Sports: Although it has the
potential to move higher, I don't feel that this is a stock I would be
comfortable holding for the long term. On a relative basis it may be
cheap, especially when compared to stratospheric Sports Direct.
However, I haven't seen any sign that it's a high quality business, with
competitive advantages. I took the opportunity when I was in
Nottingham a few weeks ago to look round a shop, and was disappointed
that there were at least three others in close proximity selling exactly
the same sort of product. I then went to a Milletts and was shocked at
the shabby nature of the store, and how empty it was. Is this really a
business I want to own for any period of time? Their fashion business
appears to be deteriorating, and while management may be doing the best I
can, and it's not really a risk I want to own. I'm happy to take
profit.
Cupid: When I bought it, I thought I was buying a profitable
business, and a future pile of cash. When the recent results came out,
it was clear that when Cupid sold the "adult" business, it kept the
entire cost base and let most of the revenues go, leaving me with the
hope of a profitable business at some point in the future. So the facts
had changed, and while I hate turning over stocks in my portfolio, I
had a chance to get out with a minimal loss and took it.
But
regardless of the reasons outlined above, the fact is that I think I
found something better. Pulsion Medical seems to tick all the boxes for
a strong long term investment: A strong business model, where it sells
medical instruments used at critical times, in a globally growing
market, where sales are perhaps temporarily depressed by the economic
issues in South Europe. The number of industry players is pretty small
at 4, margins are ROCE are extremely good and getting better. The
annual report is extremely impressive - the management cite Warren
Buffett and are extremely aware of the shareholder and shareholder
returns - they explicitly commit to buying back stock when it is
undervalued. Trading at 11* forward earnings, this is an absolute
bargain, both on an absolute and relative basis and I hope to own this
stock for many years.
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