Monday, 2 September 2013

I just bought some shares in Cupid PLC, the online dating company.  For those that aren't familiar with the story, it was a highly rated company until this year, on the back of a secular growth business, combined with a cash generative business.  Whispers about the quality of the business model turned into allegations in newspapers and in TV documentaries this year, as some journalists claimed that the company uses dummy profiles to try and entice members to subscribe to the sites.  Doubts about churn rates also came to the fore.  Oh yes, and there was a related party transaction, now closed out.
To me, online dating is not a good business. There are very few barriers to entry, and it's very hard to have a good experience, for a range of reasons.  Even the genuine users are dishonest, and upsell themselves - that's the nature of dating.  KPMG did a company commissioned investigation and concluded that Cupid wasn't being systematically fraudulent, although there are a few practices that need to be cleaned up.  Anyway, the company is now priced as a very bad business, which is probably correct, and sentiment towards it is very low.
The interesting bit is that Cupid have decided that they should get rid of their murkier operations - the "casual dating" sites, to concentrate on their more respectable ones.  They accounted for just less than 50% of EBITDA, and have been sold for approx 4.5 * EBITDA, to the co founder.  He will use the cash flow from the casual assets to pay much of the consideration, in 40 monthly installments.
Adding earnings, cash on balance sheet, and cash to be paid, the company will have approx £43 mln of cash in 2 years, with more to come. The market cap of the company is £45mln.  So in 2 years, the business will be pretty much free.  And it's a business that can possibly grow.  I think that constitutes a margin of safety, although it requires the buyer of the casual assets to keep paying his installments.

What to sell?  Well after much thought, IG had to go in the bin.  It's had a decent run, and I worry a lot about lack of growth of subscriber numbers, and regulatory changes.  Today, it re announced that it would no longer offer spread betting on Italian equities, because of their financial transactions tax.  I will think more about IG and possibly rebuy at some point.  It's not an awful stock to own, it's just that I think Cupid is better.  Other candidates would be Euromoney, but I am aware of the behavioural mistake that people make of selling their best performers, and if the likes of Hargreaves and Rightmove can sell at 30 P/E plus, then it has room to go up, perhaps.  JD Sports also was a contender, but this is still undervalued on a relative sector basis, and is geared to the current UK recovery.  I'm prepared to wait a few months on this one.  That said, I had a few hours free in Nottingham yesterday and took the opportunity to walk around the shopping district.  I was horrified at the number of casual sports shops, and the shoddy state of the Millets I walked into. 

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