|
Portfolio
as at end of September
|
|||||
|
Asset
|
Bloomberg
Ticker
|
||||
|
Exova
PLC
|
EXO LN
|
21%
|
|||
|
Leucadia
|
LUK
|
11%
|
|||
|
AIG
|
AIG US
|
10%
|
|||
|
FLYBE
|
FLYB
|
10%
|
|||
|
Glaxo
Smithkline
|
GSK
|
9%
|
|||
|
Tessenderlo
|
TESB
|
9%
|
|||
|
Next
PLC
|
NXT LN
|
8%
|
|||
|
Alternative
Asset Opportunities
|
TLI LN
|
3%
|
|||
|
Plaza
Centers
|
PLAZ LN
|
1%
|
|||
|
Dolphin
Capital
|
DCI LN
|
0%
|
|||
|
GBP
Cash
|
17%
|
||||
|
Quarterly
Return
|
Quarterly
Benchmark Return
|
||||
|
12.34%
|
5.57%
|
||||
|
Return
Since Inception
|
Benchmark
Return since Inception
|
||||
|
16.08%
|
70.86%
|
||||
|
Annualised
Return since Inception
|
Annualised
Benchmark Return since Inception
|
||||
|
4.06%
|
16.66%
|
||||
|
Quarterly
Leveraged Return
|
Annualised
Leveraged Return
|
||||
|
21.84%
|
12.47%
|
||||
|
Leverage
|
|||||
|
56%
|
|||||
My quarterly return was boosted by the fact that the
liquidation of Alternative Asset Opportunities is progressing towards
completion with the imminent return of cash meaning that the share price has
progressed towards cNAV. In the end the
terms for the sale of assets were better than I had hoped, at a premium to NAV,
and I will get a nice kicker from the collapse of GBP, which will probably
boost my return by 5% or so.
So now I have the problem of where I put the proceeds from
this liquidation, which was meant to act as “collateral” for my spread betting
positions. My choice now is whether to
discard the spread betting strategy or not and I will continue. But as that strategy relies on not losing
intrinsic value or too much MtM value at times of market distress, I will have
to be very careful about what I select – largely liquidating real estate
assets, but some with longer term capital appreciation.
These are interesting times for the British economy and I
have no idea whether the current GBP collapse will turn out to be helpful or
not. The ERM fiasco resulted in strong
growth for several years and I suspect the economic numbers might surprise on
the upside. There is a lot of risk
inherent in the current US election and while it appears that Trump’s fortunes
are on the decline he is not down and out yet.
It feels like there is a lot of risk out there, but equally I can
imagine a situation where Hilary wins, the US economy remains decent and
markets jump another 15%. In short, who
knows?
